* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/17/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 56 56 54 57 56 57 55 53 51 47 50 V (KT) LAND 60 58 56 56 54 57 56 57 55 53 51 47 50 V (KT) LGE mod 60 57 55 55 54 54 54 54 52 50 50 50 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 22 24 17 17 13 23 27 22 22 13 7 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -4 2 1 0 1 -2 2 0 -5 5 0 SHEAR DIR 261 251 259 244 233 239 213 191 202 224 219 351 315 SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.5 26.2 25.7 25.4 25.0 24.6 24.3 24.0 23.8 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 126 124 122 119 115 109 106 103 99 97 94 93 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 108 106 102 98 92 88 85 83 81 79 77 76 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -52.9 -53.7 -53.2 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 39 41 39 37 37 34 37 40 39 36 29 37 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 32 33 33 35 32 35 33 35 34 33 32 28 35 850 MB ENV VOR 85 95 109 118 130 131 126 119 105 125 155 232 218 200 MB DIV 28 40 10 9 6 35 34 63 -3 -11 -26 -2 -42 700-850 TADV 15 -5 12 10 2 3 1 -2 -9 -14 -19 -42 -6 LAND (KM) 2129 2160 2167 2106 2046 1982 2015 2030 1951 1866 1781 1720 1672 LAT (DEG N) 31.1 31.6 32.0 32.6 33.2 34.3 35.4 36.4 37.2 37.5 37.4 37.4 37.6 LONG(DEG W) 38.8 37.4 36.0 35.0 34.0 32.7 32.5 32.1 31.4 30.5 29.5 28.8 28.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 11 10 9 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 18 CX,CY: 18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 0. 2. 1. -1. -2. -5. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -6. -3. -4. -3. -5. -7. -8. -13. -10. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/17/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/17/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)