* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP112012 09/17/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 26 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 25 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 8 10 14 21 19 15 16 10 16 18 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 2 0 -1 -3 0 -3 -1 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 81 129 161 190 211 263 292 326 332 289 306 N/A N/A SST (C) 21.8 21.7 21.5 21.6 21.6 22.6 22.7 22.9 22.5 22.9 26.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 78 76 74 75 74 85 87 88 84 89 128 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 2 3 1 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 41 42 41 38 40 37 35 33 31 34 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 6 5 5 5 5 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -58 -64 -61 -62 -45 -30 -13 -4 14 15 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -36 -13 4 7 1 -1 -5 -21 -25 -14 -5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 3 -1 0 -5 -5 -5 -5 -2 -2 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 498 476 458 431 407 312 245 166 125 35 -38 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.1 25.5 25.9 26.3 26.6 26.9 27.8 28.3 29.0 30.0 29.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.0 119.1 119.1 119.0 118.9 118.0 117.5 116.6 116.7 116.2 114.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 3 4 5 3 4 5 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 84 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -10. -11. -12. -10. -6. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. 0. -3. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -15. -20. -29. -36. -43. -48. -50. -49. -52. -54. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112012 KRISTY 09/17/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)