* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP122012 09/17/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 66 69 69 65 53 39 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 64 66 69 69 65 53 39 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 64 66 66 65 58 47 36 27 20 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 4 4 5 16 18 25 30 34 31 32 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -5 -2 -2 -1 4 6 1 -1 -3 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 316 278 268 237 181 233 221 224 236 255 262 270 262 SST (C) 28.2 27.8 27.3 26.5 25.7 24.1 22.8 22.5 22.7 23.0 23.2 23.1 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 141 136 128 120 103 89 85 88 91 94 92 93 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -54.4 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 66 69 65 62 61 57 53 49 39 31 29 28 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 14 18 17 17 16 15 11 9 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 24 22 11 16 16 0 -6 -13 -18 -23 -28 -22 -35 200 MB DIV 33 33 13 48 54 48 20 4 -19 -13 4 -7 -6 700-850 TADV -2 -1 1 5 5 8 12 6 1 2 2 5 2 LAND (KM) 1787 1785 1783 1755 1733 1713 1732 1817 1927 2079 1998 1820 1632 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.3 15.9 16.7 17.5 19.0 20.2 20.6 20.6 20.3 20.0 19.9 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 125.6 126.1 126.6 127.2 127.7 128.8 129.9 131.1 132.3 133.9 135.7 137.4 139.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 10 8 7 6 7 8 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 19 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -5. -11. -16. -18. -20. -22. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -2. -6. -10. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 9. 9. 5. -7. -21. -38. -51. -62. -71. -79. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122012 LANE 09/17/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%)