* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/17/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 58 57 57 58 58 57 53 53 57 64 55 V (KT) LAND 60 59 58 57 57 58 58 57 53 53 57 64 55 V (KT) LGE mod 60 59 58 57 57 56 55 53 51 51 53 54 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 26 21 19 24 21 25 20 21 19 5 2 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 7 2 2 SHEAR DIR 247 258 244 240 234 215 203 208 221 228 332 117 26 SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.4 25.1 24.8 24.5 24.1 23.7 23.5 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 124 122 118 114 112 107 103 101 98 96 92 90 90 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 105 101 97 94 89 86 83 82 80 77 75 75 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -52.7 -53.8 -53.0 -53.1 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 41 39 37 36 36 35 41 40 38 31 33 32 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 30 30 32 31 31 32 34 34 32 32 36 44 38 850 MB ENV VOR 85 102 108 119 119 127 117 100 99 156 250 259 236 200 MB DIV 24 4 4 0 10 34 40 22 -12 5 -28 -2 -29 700-850 TADV 1 10 9 2 0 1 0 -4 -6 -19 -21 7 7 LAND (KM) 2162 2163 2076 2042 2007 2001 2038 1994 1908 1816 1723 1681 1683 LAT (DEG N) 31.7 32.2 32.7 33.3 33.9 35.1 36.2 36.9 37.2 37.4 37.7 37.6 37.5 LONG(DEG W) 37.1 35.9 34.6 33.9 33.2 32.5 32.3 31.8 30.9 29.9 28.9 28.4 28.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 10 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 3 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 15 CX,CY: 14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 12. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 4. 10. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 13. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -7. -7. -3. 4. -5. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/17/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/17/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)