* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP122012 09/17/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 67 67 64 53 41 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 67 67 67 64 53 41 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 68 68 66 62 51 39 29 22 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 6 7 11 19 20 27 32 32 44 43 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -2 -3 0 -2 6 3 1 0 -5 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 317 280 262 217 210 227 227 238 244 264 262 253 247 SST (C) 27.7 27.0 26.3 25.4 24.5 23.0 22.2 22.3 22.7 23.0 23.0 23.1 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 134 126 117 107 91 82 83 88 92 92 93 94 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.7 -53.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -54.8 -55.1 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 67 64 62 60 60 53 54 44 38 35 33 34 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 14 16 15 14 15 11 9 7 5 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 18 9 7 0 0 -14 -22 -32 -30 -34 -33 -40 -39 200 MB DIV 19 15 28 54 60 24 19 4 -26 -20 5 15 -2 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 5 8 9 10 6 1 3 0 5 -1 LAND (KM) 1763 1750 1727 1699 1676 1691 1746 1860 1993 2091 1862 1663 1465 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.3 17.0 17.9 18.7 20.0 20.9 21.0 20.7 20.3 20.1 20.0 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 126.0 126.6 127.1 127.6 128.1 129.3 130.5 131.8 133.1 134.8 137.0 138.9 140.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 9 8 7 6 7 9 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -1. -6. -13. -19. -25. -27. -29. -31. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -9. -14. -19. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. 1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. -1. -12. -24. -42. -56. -68. -79. -90. -98. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122012 LANE 09/17/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)