* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/17/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 57 55 56 53 52 49 47 44 37 34 31 V (KT) LAND 60 59 57 55 56 53 52 49 47 44 37 34 31 V (KT) LGE mod 60 60 59 58 56 54 51 49 47 47 47 47 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 23 21 25 18 24 26 24 23 15 3 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 3 1 3 1 -2 1 0 5 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 258 250 243 226 216 214 198 210 223 224 73 360 22 SST (C) 26.8 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.6 25.0 24.5 24.2 24.0 23.7 23.3 23.0 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 123 119 115 112 109 103 98 96 95 93 91 89 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 101 97 94 91 86 81 79 79 78 77 75 75 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -52.9 -53.6 -54.6 -55.3 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 40 35 33 33 31 36 37 38 38 34 33 32 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 31 32 31 30 34 33 34 34 34 32 27 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR 100 109 116 116 118 111 105 101 125 112 103 64 57 200 MB DIV -1 8 5 4 45 11 73 3 -32 -42 -36 -42 -30 700-850 TADV 14 9 1 1 3 0 0 -8 -11 0 -10 -12 -10 LAND (KM) 2158 2117 2054 2033 2012 2037 2020 1958 1882 1797 1697 1610 1534 LAT (DEG N) 32.5 33.1 33.6 34.2 34.8 36.0 36.9 37.3 37.2 37.1 37.3 37.3 37.2 LONG(DEG W) 35.9 34.9 33.9 33.4 32.8 32.4 32.1 31.5 30.6 29.6 28.5 27.5 26.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 8 8 7 6 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 14 CX,CY: 13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 11. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 1. 0. 2. 1. 1. -1. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -4. -7. -8. -11. -13. -16. -23. -26. -29. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/17/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/17/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)