* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP122012 09/17/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 67 64 59 47 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 66 67 64 59 47 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 65 62 57 46 35 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 4 11 12 18 26 26 33 35 39 44 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 -1 -1 2 1 1 -1 -1 -3 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 288 295 205 213 236 231 244 244 264 262 260 251 255 SST (C) 27.0 26.2 25.5 24.6 23.7 22.5 22.2 22.3 22.6 23.1 23.5 23.6 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 125 118 109 99 86 82 83 87 94 98 99 102 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -54.2 -54.5 -54.2 -54.7 -54.4 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 65 61 64 60 56 57 52 41 36 32 34 33 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 18 16 14 14 12 10 7 5 4 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 5 5 1 -3 -15 -25 -29 -30 -34 -35 -22 -30 -15 200 MB DIV 14 15 42 43 2 16 4 -5 -34 11 5 -4 -14 700-850 TADV 1 1 4 9 11 12 8 4 1 3 3 6 5 LAND (KM) 1728 1701 1679 1663 1653 1693 1788 1902 2003 2039 1779 1540 1291 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 17.1 17.8 18.6 19.4 20.4 20.8 20.9 20.8 20.3 19.7 19.3 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 126.3 126.8 127.3 127.9 128.4 129.6 130.9 132.2 133.4 135.3 137.8 140.1 142.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 8 7 6 6 8 11 12 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -9. -16. -23. -28. -30. -31. -32. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -7. -11. -16. -20. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. -1. -6. -18. -35. -51. -65. -76. -85. -94. -99. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122012 LANE 09/17/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.9%)