* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/17/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 50 51 50 48 49 49 49 49 47 39 30 V (KT) LAND 55 53 50 51 50 48 49 49 49 49 47 39 30 V (KT) LGE mod 55 53 52 52 51 51 50 49 48 49 49 48 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 20 23 20 17 22 23 19 28 3 12 22 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 0 1 2 -3 3 -3 0 -3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 255 245 229 225 207 214 201 223 208 205 14 6 359 SST (C) 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.6 25.3 24.8 24.4 24.1 23.7 23.6 23.7 23.6 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 118 115 112 108 106 101 97 96 93 91 92 92 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 97 94 91 88 84 81 80 79 76 76 77 77 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -51.8 -52.1 -51.7 -52.4 -52.7 -53.5 -53.9 -54.9 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 35 36 36 35 33 40 37 36 35 32 32 38 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 33 31 30 34 34 33 33 33 34 34 34 28 24 850 MB ENV VOR 104 112 116 118 117 104 97 120 155 149 126 89 74 200 MB DIV 0 8 13 42 54 21 61 2 -18 -48 -44 -44 -39 700-850 TADV 10 1 2 2 -5 5 -6 -8 -17 5 -3 -7 -11 LAND (KM) 2123 2080 2037 2027 2019 2052 2012 1923 1812 1750 1746 1700 1630 LAT (DEG N) 33.2 33.7 34.2 34.8 35.3 36.5 37.2 37.3 37.2 36.9 36.7 36.5 36.5 LONG(DEG W) 34.9 34.2 33.4 33.0 32.6 32.5 32.1 31.1 29.8 29.0 28.9 28.3 27.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 6 6 5 3 4 4 2 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 11 CX,CY: 9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -1. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -6. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -8. -16. -25. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/17/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/17/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)