* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP122012 09/17/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 67 62 54 37 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 70 67 62 54 37 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 70 67 62 56 42 31 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 10 13 19 21 23 31 38 43 42 49 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 0 0 -1 5 2 0 -5 -5 -4 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 261 243 239 228 233 226 235 249 265 252 252 250 270 SST (C) 26.0 25.3 24.5 23.6 22.8 21.9 21.7 22.0 22.5 23.1 23.5 23.7 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 123 115 107 98 89 79 77 81 87 93 98 100 104 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -53.9 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 59 61 61 58 58 55 46 38 32 33 34 32 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 17 16 15 13 11 9 6 4 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -3 -7 -17 -20 -27 -40 -37 -45 -38 -36 -31 -23 200 MB DIV 11 37 33 12 4 13 -13 -35 -16 -6 8 0 -16 700-850 TADV 1 3 10 8 13 13 10 3 3 1 6 -2 11 LAND (KM) 1689 1668 1652 1645 1644 1675 1737 1862 2024 1914 1706 1479 1264 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 18.0 18.7 19.5 20.2 21.2 21.6 21.6 21.3 20.6 19.7 19.1 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 126.9 127.4 127.8 128.4 128.9 129.9 130.8 132.3 134.4 136.5 138.5 140.7 142.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 8 6 6 8 10 10 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -8. -17. -25. -32. -37. -39. -39. -40. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -11. -17. -21. -26. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -18. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -3. -8. -16. -33. -50. -66. -81. -90. -98.-105.-111. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122012 LANE 09/17/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)