* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/18/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 48 48 47 50 50 50 52 50 48 47 45 V (KT) LAND 50 48 48 48 47 50 50 50 52 50 48 47 45 V (KT) LGE mod 50 47 46 46 47 47 48 48 49 51 54 56 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 23 21 17 20 21 27 21 14 7 5 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 0 0 1 -6 6 -1 -6 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 248 235 232 228 217 207 219 217 220 316 3 14 342 SST (C) 26.2 26.0 25.7 25.5 25.1 24.7 24.4 24.2 24.1 24.3 24.8 25.5 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 115 112 109 108 104 100 97 96 95 97 102 108 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 96 94 92 90 87 83 81 80 80 82 86 92 97 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -53.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.8 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 36 34 35 36 39 42 40 40 35 30 28 35 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 30 29 32 31 30 33 32 32 34 29 26 25 23 850 MB ENV VOR 109 115 118 116 110 108 103 134 147 139 104 82 66 200 MB DIV 1 19 36 44 30 64 5 -6 -34 -30 -43 -16 -19 700-850 TADV 2 2 5 0 0 1 -7 -9 -4 -6 -9 -6 -8 LAND (KM) 2106 2076 2046 2051 2059 2045 1976 1906 1848 1787 1719 1695 1736 LAT (DEG N) 33.6 34.1 34.6 35.2 35.8 36.6 36.9 36.9 36.5 35.8 34.7 33.4 32.2 LONG(DEG W) 34.5 33.9 33.3 33.1 32.8 32.3 31.6 30.8 30.0 29.5 29.3 29.8 30.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 8 CX,CY: 6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 0. 0. 2. -3. -6. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 2. 0. -2. -3. -5. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/18/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/18/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED