* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/18/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 49 50 50 51 49 48 48 47 54 55 52 V (KT) LAND 50 49 49 50 50 51 49 48 48 47 54 55 52 V (KT) LGE mod 50 49 48 48 48 48 48 48 49 52 56 59 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 27 25 28 27 25 24 22 8 6 9 9 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -2 -1 1 -2 4 2 -3 7 1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 239 245 237 221 214 206 225 217 221 107 322 338 347 SST (C) 26.0 25.8 25.5 25.2 24.8 24.6 24.4 24.3 24.2 24.6 25.3 26.1 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 112 110 108 105 101 98 97 97 96 100 107 114 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 94 92 90 88 84 81 81 82 81 84 90 97 102 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -54.7 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 35 37 35 37 38 36 36 30 29 29 24 22 16 GFS VTEX (KT) 30 30 30 31 33 33 32 31 29 27 34 34 32 850 MB ENV VOR 116 115 112 111 107 100 102 144 156 177 101 91 60 200 MB DIV 20 25 15 45 36 37 -21 -23 -23 -34 -47 -26 -24 700-850 TADV 0 5 1 0 3 -3 -3 -9 -17 -15 -24 13 3 LAND (KM) 2063 2048 2034 2057 2046 2003 2006 1918 1844 1802 1830 1818 1791 LAT (DEG N) 34.0 34.6 35.1 35.8 36.4 37.0 37.1 36.8 36.3 35.4 34.3 32.7 31.1 LONG(DEG W) 33.8 33.4 32.9 32.8 32.7 32.7 32.0 30.9 29.9 29.9 30.9 31.6 32.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 7 5 2 4 5 4 5 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 12. 13. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -13. -15. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. 2. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 4. 5. 2. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/18/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/18/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED