* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/18/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 51 51 53 52 51 52 53 48 41 35 31 V (KT) LAND 50 50 51 51 53 52 51 52 53 48 41 35 31 V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 51 51 51 50 50 51 52 53 52 49 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 24 28 26 23 30 25 19 7 14 25 27 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 2 -1 -3 4 4 -3 -1 2 5 2 SHEAR DIR 245 242 227 219 217 225 223 232 174 18 5 344 340 SST (C) 25.8 25.6 25.3 25.1 24.9 24.7 24.7 24.5 24.4 24.4 24.3 24.3 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 110 108 105 103 101 99 101 101 99 97 95 94 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 92 90 88 86 83 82 85 86 84 81 78 78 79 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.8 -54.7 -54.9 -55.1 -55.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 34 33 36 38 40 39 36 30 32 29 31 29 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 30 29 29 31 33 31 30 30 31 27 24 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 123 115 116 112 113 96 134 156 157 136 110 77 32 200 MB DIV 32 14 33 38 63 -7 -7 -28 -15 -32 -13 -49 -42 700-850 TADV 4 5 1 6 3 -3 -4 -5 -5 -12 -16 -26 -22 LAND (KM) 2033 2031 2032 2054 2053 2045 1954 1773 1580 1471 1444 1444 1455 LAT (DEG N) 34.3 34.9 35.4 35.9 36.3 36.7 36.2 35.5 34.9 34.7 34.8 34.8 34.7 LONG(DEG W) 33.3 33.0 32.7 32.7 32.7 32.4 31.3 29.5 27.5 26.3 25.9 25.9 26.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 3 3 7 8 7 3 1 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -8. -8. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -2. -1. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 10. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 1. 2. 3. -2. -9. -15. -19. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/18/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/18/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED