* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP122012 09/18/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 54 48 38 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 54 48 38 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 54 48 42 36 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 17 25 25 28 33 34 35 46 53 45 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 6 3 3 2 -5 -5 0 -2 -5 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 229 233 241 242 246 232 259 258 258 250 260 263 272 SST (C) 23.5 23.0 22.5 22.2 21.9 21.9 22.3 22.9 23.3 23.5 23.7 24.1 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 96 90 85 83 79 79 84 91 96 98 100 103 103 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -54.3 -54.5 -54.2 -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 55 57 56 50 48 37 31 30 31 30 32 30 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 17 16 13 11 9 6 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -7 -16 -19 -30 -37 -44 -42 -33 -40 -35 -43 -37 200 MB DIV 17 30 26 -3 -6 -8 -17 21 -3 11 -3 -2 -13 700-850 TADV 8 11 12 9 9 4 4 3 4 5 8 8 1 LAND (KM) 1591 1603 1617 1654 1693 1826 1948 2049 1799 1559 1329 1110 963 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.1 20.5 20.9 21.2 21.5 21.2 20.6 20.1 19.8 19.7 19.6 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 127.9 128.4 128.8 129.5 130.1 131.7 133.1 135.2 137.6 139.9 142.1 144.2 145.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 7 9 11 11 10 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -8. -12. -20. -25. -29. -32. -32. -31. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -18. -24. -30. -34. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. -2. -6. -10. -13. -15. -16. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -22. -33. -52. -69. -83. -94.-103.-110.-114.-115. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122012 LANE 09/18/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)