* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/18/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 51 52 53 52 52 50 49 46 41 42 45 V (KT) LAND 50 50 51 52 53 52 52 50 49 46 41 42 45 V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 50 50 50 49 49 51 53 53 52 49 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 28 30 23 22 23 15 12 7 25 33 32 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 0 -1 2 2 1 7 6 4 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 243 230 223 221 199 228 228 332 12 328 313 306 291 SST (C) 25.5 25.3 25.0 24.8 24.6 24.5 24.2 24.1 24.3 24.7 25.1 25.4 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 108 106 103 100 98 98 97 97 97 100 102 104 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 90 88 85 83 81 82 81 82 82 83 85 86 88 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -53.7 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 -55.4 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 3 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 32 35 38 40 39 39 32 33 31 30 21 13 15 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 28 31 32 33 30 29 27 27 27 25 27 29 850 MB ENV VOR 105 104 100 107 86 87 122 145 162 135 138 113 97 200 MB DIV 15 24 22 52 74 -12 -27 -38 -29 -43 -52 -45 -43 700-850 TADV 2 2 4 3 -7 -9 -25 -27 -57 -15 -26 -20 -3 LAND (KM) 2008 2022 2037 2040 2025 1958 1859 1735 1619 1556 1560 1534 1477 LAT (DEG N) 34.9 35.5 36.0 36.4 36.7 36.6 36.4 35.9 35.2 34.4 33.7 33.2 32.9 LONG(DEG W) 32.7 32.6 32.4 32.3 32.1 31.3 30.1 28.8 27.8 27.5 28.0 28.0 27.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 3 4 5 6 5 4 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -2. -3. -5. -4. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -4. -9. -8. -5. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/18/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/18/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED