* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP122012 09/18/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 37 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 37 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 37 31 26 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 23 26 27 28 33 39 39 43 52 47 38 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 4 3 2 -1 -7 0 0 -1 -3 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 231 229 240 243 237 241 262 249 244 237 250 264 275 SST (C) 22.7 22.2 21.9 21.8 21.8 22.1 22.4 22.7 22.9 23.2 23.5 23.8 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 88 82 78 77 78 82 86 89 91 94 97 99 101 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.8 -54.1 -54.5 -54.7 -54.2 -54.9 -55.2 -55.4 -55.0 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 55 55 50 46 43 34 30 28 30 29 28 27 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 13 11 9 7 5 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -20 -29 -41 -43 -48 -55 -54 -55 -57 -55 -52 -46 200 MB DIV 14 24 2 -1 0 -14 -1 1 4 -4 -6 11 5 700-850 TADV 10 13 13 7 9 5 7 3 6 3 3 -2 -5 LAND (KM) 1647 1660 1675 1715 1756 1880 2000 1907 1668 1453 1249 1063 932 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.8 21.2 21.3 21.4 21.4 21.5 21.5 21.4 21.5 21.6 21.9 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 129.0 129.5 129.9 130.4 130.9 132.3 134.3 136.6 138.9 141.0 143.0 144.9 146.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 5 6 8 10 11 10 9 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -10. -15. -17. -20. -22. -21. -19. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -15. -23. -30. -36. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -17. -28. -38. -55. -69. -82. -92. -99.-104.-105.-104. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122012 LANE 09/18/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)