* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/19/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 47 47 47 46 47 43 41 38 39 40 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 47 47 47 46 47 43 41 38 39 40 V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 43 43 44 46 49 50 50 47 44 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 29 27 22 25 16 17 15 13 33 32 28 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -3 -1 0 5 -2 6 10 8 10 3 1 SHEAR DIR 236 228 214 213 207 221 270 3 328 315 302 288 262 SST (C) 25.2 24.9 24.7 24.6 24.4 24.3 24.4 24.5 24.7 24.9 25.0 25.1 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 105 102 100 98 97 98 99 99 100 100 101 103 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 88 85 83 81 81 82 83 83 83 83 84 86 87 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 -54.1 -54.8 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -55.3 -56.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 6 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 35 37 40 40 40 39 32 33 32 25 18 16 14 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 30 32 32 32 30 27 27 24 25 24 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR 103 97 103 87 86 111 138 170 176 148 105 106 76 200 MB DIV 25 16 37 88 35 -14 -29 -24 -42 -4 -25 -48 -41 700-850 TADV 3 6 2 -3 -3 -10 -14 -30 -42 -57 -15 -8 -10 LAND (KM) 1995 2013 2022 1996 1970 1877 1748 1638 1548 1488 1448 1375 1269 LAT (DEG N) 35.5 36.0 36.5 36.7 36.8 36.3 35.5 34.9 34.4 34.0 33.7 33.4 33.3 LONG(DEG W) 32.2 32.1 32.0 31.8 31.5 30.3 29.2 28.2 27.4 26.9 26.6 25.9 24.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 2 4 6 6 4 4 2 3 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -2. -5. -4. -5. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. -2. -4. -7. -6. -5. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/19/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/19/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED