* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP122012 09/19/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 33 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 33 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 34 28 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 26 26 30 32 33 37 37 41 48 46 51 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 4 2 0 -1 -5 1 3 -2 -4 -7 -7 SHEAR DIR 243 245 243 232 224 239 255 243 238 257 270 277 269 SST (C) 22.3 22.1 22.0 22.1 22.2 22.5 22.9 23.1 23.3 23.7 24.0 24.3 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 84 81 80 81 82 86 91 94 96 100 103 105 108 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.9 -54.4 -54.5 -55.0 -55.4 -55.1 -54.6 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 56 49 46 41 39 33 31 32 33 32 33 30 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 11 10 8 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -30 -37 -44 -44 -50 -53 -43 -51 -43 -46 -37 -35 200 MB DIV 11 9 16 15 7 -8 20 0 2 -8 4 -25 -17 700-850 TADV 17 15 5 8 8 3 7 4 7 5 6 -1 2 LAND (KM) 1700 1740 1781 1838 1896 2002 2008 1757 1476 1226 989 777 620 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.9 21.1 21.2 21.2 21.1 20.8 20.6 20.5 20.5 20.7 20.9 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 129.8 130.4 131.0 131.7 132.3 133.8 135.6 138.0 140.7 143.1 145.4 147.5 149.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 7 8 10 12 12 11 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -16. -24. -31. -36. -40. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -23. -32. -49. -64. -77. -87. -94. -98.-100. -98. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122012 LANE 09/19/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)