* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP122012 09/19/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 26 22 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 33 34 37 36 49 52 50 59 53 47 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 -1 -1 -11 -9 -2 -5 -8 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 233 224 229 238 253 253 242 249 258 262 N/A N/A SST (C) 22.1 22.2 22.2 22.5 22.7 23.0 23.2 23.2 23.4 23.6 23.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 81 82 83 86 89 92 94 94 95 96 96 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.8 -54.9 -55.1 -55.3 -55.3 -55.2 -55.4 -55.3 -54.9 -54.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 4 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 47 44 40 35 32 35 34 34 32 29 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 9 9 7 6 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -49 -51 -47 -46 -53 -51 -46 -63 -59 -52 -26 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 12 12 7 8 12 26 17 -6 8 1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 7 7 4 2 8 6 11 10 4 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1792 1844 1897 1975 2041 1955 1747 1560 1363 1231 1162 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.0 21.0 20.9 20.8 20.6 20.5 20.6 20.8 21.0 21.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 131.0 131.6 132.2 133.1 134.0 136.1 138.1 139.9 141.8 143.1 143.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 5 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -5. -12. -22. -34. -43. -48. -51. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -15. -22. -36. -52. -68. -82. -90. -93. -97. -98. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122012 LANE 09/19/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)