* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/20/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 44 43 45 47 44 43 39 37 36 36 36 V (KT) LAND 45 44 44 43 45 47 44 43 39 37 36 36 36 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 45 45 46 48 51 54 55 53 51 49 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 26 23 24 24 4 7 11 29 28 35 37 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 5 0 -6 -4 3 5 0 -1 -5 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 217 224 228 225 253 23 358 319 286 281 282 270 278 SST (C) 24.3 24.3 24.2 24.2 24.3 24.7 25.0 25.0 24.9 24.8 25.0 25.1 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 96 98 98 98 99 102 103 102 101 99 101 103 102 ADJ. POT. INT. 80 82 83 84 85 87 87 86 85 82 84 85 85 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -53.4 -53.9 -54.6 -55.2 -54.6 -55.1 -55.9 -55.7 -55.7 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 37 36 36 34 32 33 31 32 28 28 32 30 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 29 28 28 30 30 26 24 21 21 21 22 23 850 MB ENV VOR 76 78 106 122 137 164 149 129 91 67 40 13 -15 200 MB DIV 17 -39 -26 -28 -28 -30 -34 -15 -40 -18 -14 13 -19 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -9 -16 -9 -5 -19 -33 -34 -24 -11 -9 -21 LAND (KM) 1975 1930 1886 1820 1728 1526 1368 1267 1216 1175 1137 1098 1063 LAT (DEG N) 37.3 37.0 36.7 36.2 35.6 34.3 33.6 33.6 34.0 34.1 33.6 33.6 34.1 LONG(DEG W) 31.7 31.1 30.5 29.7 28.9 27.2 25.7 24.5 23.6 23.0 22.9 22.4 21.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 7 8 9 8 6 4 4 2 2 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. -2. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -4. -7. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. 0. 2. -1. -2. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/20/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/20/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED