* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/20/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 48 48 50 50 48 48 47 46 44 43 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 48 48 50 50 48 48 47 46 44 43 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 46 47 48 51 55 57 56 56 54 51 50 Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 24 20 12 3 5 7 16 26 33 34 34 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 0 0 2 1 -2 -2 -6 -8 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 222 226 241 241 281 34 333 276 263 236 235 233 232 SST (C) 24.1 24.1 24.2 24.5 24.8 25.4 25.7 25.7 25.8 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 98 98 99 101 103 106 107 106 107 107 105 106 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 84 85 85 87 88 90 89 87 87 88 86 88 88 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.8 -53.7 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -54.5 -54.9 -54.6 -54.2 -54.4 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 37 37 35 35 36 32 31 31 28 26 28 29 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 28 30 31 29 28 27 22 23 24 25 24 25 850 MB ENV VOR 115 135 150 170 189 169 142 111 91 81 77 81 95 200 MB DIV -9 -17 -19 -13 -7 -24 -8 -24 -12 -18 4 -9 -10 700-850 TADV -12 -19 -12 -10 -14 -15 -11 -13 -4 4 8 0 -3 LAND (KM) 1833 1731 1621 1529 1437 1304 1239 1228 1248 1248 1215 1223 1270 LAT (DEG N) 36.4 35.9 35.4 34.7 34.0 32.6 32.0 31.8 31.7 31.7 31.7 31.7 31.8 LONG(DEG W) 29.8 28.8 27.7 27.0 26.3 25.6 25.2 25.2 25.5 25.5 25.1 25.2 25.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 8 6 2 1 1 1 0 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 0. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -16. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/20/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/20/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED