* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/20/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 47 48 47 50 52 53 54 52 50 49 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 47 48 47 50 52 53 54 52 50 49 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 46 47 49 52 54 56 56 56 55 52 49 Storm Type EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 19 8 4 3 10 9 20 22 26 33 41 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 1 -2 -1 1 1 -3 -3 -3 -7 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 230 241 244 356 7 360 281 247 258 245 238 248 250 SST (C) 23.8 24.0 24.2 24.6 24.9 25.4 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 96 97 98 101 103 106 105 104 104 104 104 104 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 83 84 84 86 88 88 87 85 85 85 85 85 86 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.2 -54.1 -54.7 -54.7 -54.4 -54.7 -55.1 -54.8 -55.3 -55.1 -55.3 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 36 36 35 34 31 29 26 25 25 22 23 19 21 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 31 31 30 28 26 27 26 27 28 28 28 31 850 MB ENV VOR 132 148 164 199 192 156 131 102 101 104 104 91 -15 200 MB DIV -13 -21 -12 -10 -2 -15 -5 -1 -2 -6 -9 -14 -57 700-850 TADV -19 -8 -7 -6 -18 -17 -28 0 4 3 -5 -7 -36 LAND (KM) 1732 1644 1549 1479 1411 1284 1226 1214 1231 1231 1214 1214 1231 LAT (DEG N) 36.3 35.7 35.1 34.5 33.8 32.8 32.5 32.3 32.3 32.3 32.3 32.3 32.3 LONG(DEG W) 28.6 27.8 27.0 26.6 26.1 25.2 24.7 24.7 24.9 24.9 24.7 24.7 24.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 2. -2. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 7. 5. 4. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/20/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/20/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED