* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/21/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 59 59 60 60 60 65 65 57 53 48 44 V (KT) LAND 55 58 59 59 60 60 60 65 65 57 53 48 44 V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 61 62 63 64 63 63 62 60 56 51 48 Storm Type EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 9 3 7 7 4 14 24 30 34 40 35 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -2 1 2 -3 -5 -3 -4 -1 -6 -7 SHEAR DIR 236 228 3 41 11 342 242 235 235 230 232 242 251 SST (C) 24.0 24.3 24.5 24.9 25.2 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 96 99 100 103 105 106 104 104 103 103 103 104 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 82 84 85 88 89 88 86 85 84 84 84 85 84 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -54.0 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -54.6 -54.6 -55.1 -54.9 -55.0 -55.1 -55.1 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 35 33 35 33 33 31 28 26 18 20 17 15 22 GFS VTEX (KT) 31 33 31 30 31 29 27 31 32 27 28 27 25 850 MB ENV VOR 153 169 200 202 197 171 152 148 141 128 98 -5 -10 200 MB DIV -21 -13 -12 -14 -8 -1 -14 10 3 -4 -21 -23 -26 700-850 TADV -12 -6 -3 -16 -17 -21 -9 12 14 8 -1 -3 -30 LAND (KM) 1681 1607 1532 1464 1393 1274 1244 1236 1236 1236 1236 1236 1242 LAT (DEG N) 35.8 35.2 34.6 34.0 33.3 32.5 32.4 32.4 32.4 32.4 32.4 32.4 32.5 LONG(DEG W) 28.2 27.7 27.1 26.7 26.2 25.3 25.0 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):115/ 8 CX,CY: 7/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 6. 3. -1. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -2. -1. -6. -5. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 10. 10. 2. -2. -7. -11. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/21/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/21/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED