* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/21/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 56 56 54 52 51 52 48 48 43 41 41 V (KT) LAND 55 56 56 56 54 52 51 52 48 48 43 41 41 V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 59 60 60 59 58 56 55 53 52 51 51 Storm Type EXTP SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 4 6 11 16 17 24 29 28 27 29 26 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 -2 2 2 1 0 -2 -3 -3 -1 -6 1 SHEAR DIR 219 75 43 42 11 273 261 248 252 227 252 239 268 SST (C) 24.2 24.5 24.9 25.1 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.5 25.4 25.4 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 98 101 103 104 106 105 104 102 102 104 103 103 102 ADJ. POT. INT. 84 86 88 89 89 88 85 83 83 85 84 84 83 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.8 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.4 -55.1 -54.6 -54.9 -54.1 -54.5 -54.6 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 4 5 4 5 4 5 5 5 3 700-500 MB RH 31 34 30 31 28 30 28 26 26 29 29 33 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 34 32 29 29 27 27 26 28 27 29 27 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR 168 188 184 170 149 115 76 83 68 73 54 79 107 200 MB DIV -24 -26 -12 -13 -15 -21 -13 -1 9 0 -17 -13 -15 700-850 TADV -10 -2 -15 -6 -19 -29 -16 0 10 3 -2 -19 -17 LAND (KM) 1591 1511 1432 1364 1292 1202 1156 1147 1156 1142 1130 1130 1139 LAT (DEG N) 35.3 34.6 33.9 33.4 32.8 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.4 32.5 32.5 32.5 LONG(DEG W) 27.4 26.9 26.3 25.8 25.3 24.4 23.8 23.7 23.8 23.7 23.5 23.5 23.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 5 4 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 7 CX,CY: 6/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -6. -8. -6. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -7. -7. -12. -14. -14. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/21/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/21/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED