* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/21/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 54 52 51 49 51 51 49 47 42 42 42 V (KT) LAND 55 55 54 52 51 49 51 51 49 47 42 42 42 V (KT) LGE mod 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 54 52 51 Storm Type SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 9 8 16 14 26 32 27 25 32 29 32 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 0 1 4 3 -2 -2 -7 -3 -7 -2 -7 -3 SHEAR DIR 65 63 49 17 342 268 234 229 226 228 236 244 253 SST (C) 24.5 24.8 25.1 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 100 102 104 106 106 105 104 104 103 103 103 103 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 85 87 88 89 89 87 85 85 85 85 84 84 85 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.8 -54.6 -54.5 -55.3 -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -54.6 -55.1 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 32 30 28 32 30 30 26 22 26 27 26 23 22 GFS VTEX (KT) 32 30 29 29 27 26 29 30 28 27 24 25 25 850 MB ENV VOR 185 189 179 155 139 108 105 110 114 110 103 44 3 200 MB DIV -32 -8 -35 -23 -11 -12 15 -9 9 -3 -12 -28 -26 700-850 TADV 0 -9 -10 -9 -29 -19 -6 10 8 0 -3 -20 -22 LAND (KM) 1570 1505 1436 1369 1302 1226 1209 1185 1163 1163 1185 1185 1163 LAT (DEG N) 34.7 34.1 33.5 33.1 32.7 32.5 32.6 32.6 32.5 32.5 32.6 32.6 32.5 LONG(DEG W) 27.5 27.1 26.6 26.1 25.5 24.7 24.4 24.1 23.9 23.9 24.1 24.1 23.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):190/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -3. -4. -5. -6. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -4. -4. -6. -8. -13. -13. -13. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/21/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/21/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED