* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/21/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 49 48 48 50 52 52 47 45 46 48 48 V (KT) LAND 50 50 49 48 48 50 52 52 47 45 46 48 48 V (KT) LGE mod 50 49 50 51 52 54 56 57 55 53 52 51 51 Storm Type SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 12 8 12 22 22 27 29 29 27 27 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 1 3 -1 -4 2 -5 0 -2 -2 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 71 9 357 343 280 244 231 242 232 235 236 261 240 SST (C) 25.1 25.4 25.7 25.8 25.9 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.5 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 105 108 110 110 110 109 108 106 106 107 107 105 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 90 92 93 92 92 91 89 87 87 89 89 87 86 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -55.3 -54.6 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 5 6 6 4 4 700-500 MB RH 28 28 30 29 30 27 27 35 34 33 34 33 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 26 26 25 23 24 26 26 23 22 23 27 26 850 MB ENV VOR 173 163 141 120 101 69 76 85 67 43 56 65 74 200 MB DIV 2 -34 -25 -9 -12 -12 -14 -6 7 4 10 -6 -9 700-850 TADV -8 -20 -19 -23 -26 -21 5 16 2 0 -17 -19 -33 LAND (KM) 1484 1398 1314 1259 1203 1142 1079 1076 1098 1093 1040 1017 1015 LAT (DEG N) 33.5 32.8 32.0 31.7 31.3 31.1 31.2 31.3 31.4 31.6 31.9 32.1 32.4 LONG(DEG W) 27.2 26.7 26.1 25.7 25.2 24.6 23.8 23.7 23.9 23.7 22.8 22.4 22.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 7 5 4 3 2 0 0 3 3 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):160/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -4. -7. -8. -7. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 2. -3. -5. -4. -2. -2. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/21/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/21/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED