* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/22/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 49 50 51 55 55 56 55 54 54 52 V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 49 50 51 55 55 56 55 54 54 52 V (KT) LGE mod 50 49 49 51 52 54 56 57 56 55 56 57 57 Storm Type SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 5 10 17 24 23 23 24 15 19 23 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 -1 -4 -3 -2 -2 -1 -2 -4 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 23 345 356 272 258 242 249 230 232 237 261 285 291 SST (C) 25.6 25.8 26.0 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.5 25.4 25.4 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 110 111 112 111 110 109 109 108 107 106 106 108 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 95 95 95 93 92 90 90 90 88 88 90 93 94 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.7 -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 -55.3 -54.6 -54.6 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.9 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 29 29 28 31 28 27 31 38 40 43 40 34 23 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 26 26 24 24 24 27 27 28 27 25 26 26 850 MB ENV VOR 158 134 117 99 78 71 76 72 50 42 48 41 -48 200 MB DIV -35 -25 -19 -8 -16 2 -9 25 0 7 0 -9 -24 700-850 TADV -14 -9 -16 -20 -11 0 17 8 -1 -6 -16 -31 -46 LAND (KM) 1398 1330 1262 1216 1170 1127 1146 1174 1217 1214 1177 1025 815 LAT (DEG N) 32.5 31.7 30.9 30.7 30.4 30.6 31.0 31.4 31.9 32.3 32.6 32.6 32.4 LONG(DEG W) 26.8 26.5 26.1 25.7 25.3 24.7 24.7 24.8 25.0 24.7 24.0 22.2 19.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 6 4 3 2 2 3 2 3 5 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):165/ 11 CX,CY: 3/-10 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. -2. -1. -3. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 2. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/22/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/22/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED