* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN EP132012 09/22/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 47 54 66 73 77 79 76 75 73 71 V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 47 54 66 73 77 79 76 75 73 71 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 40 45 53 62 68 71 69 65 59 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 5 10 7 6 3 4 6 12 15 22 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -4 -3 -8 -5 -5 -6 -5 0 0 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 118 116 115 129 137 119 153 203 231 269 237 259 250 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.2 27.7 27.3 26.8 26.3 25.8 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 154 153 152 151 146 140 135 130 124 118 114 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -52.5 -53.0 -52.0 -52.6 -51.4 -51.8 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 71 72 71 69 70 64 62 58 56 55 55 61 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 10 11 12 12 13 15 15 17 18 20 850 MB ENV VOR 29 28 35 37 37 22 20 6 14 -1 1 -4 -2 200 MB DIV 90 73 43 49 62 46 54 48 64 41 4 28 58 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -1 -1 -2 0 -1 0 1 4 5 9 LAND (KM) 657 689 714 744 783 858 815 801 813 812 809 807 801 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 7 6 6 4 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 58 58 52 47 44 42 33 27 21 17 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 26. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 10. 10. 13. 14. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 24. 36. 43. 47. 49. 46. 45. 43. 41. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132012 THIRTEEN 09/22/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 57% is 4.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 38% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 27% is 7.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)