* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/22/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 45 46 51 52 54 50 53 52 51 51 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 45 46 51 52 54 50 53 52 51 51 V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 45 46 48 51 53 54 53 52 52 52 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 10 18 22 24 19 25 26 22 18 21 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -6 -3 -7 0 -3 1 -5 2 4 0 SHEAR DIR 338 312 261 258 250 249 250 248 267 251 275 296 289 SST (C) 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.6 25.5 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.3 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 111 111 111 111 110 110 107 105 105 105 106 106 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 95 94 93 93 92 92 89 86 87 88 90 91 90 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -55.1 -54.9 -55.0 -54.8 -54.7 -54.4 -54.7 -54.7 -56.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 6 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 2 700-500 MB RH 29 27 28 27 26 28 39 42 41 40 32 27 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 24 22 22 22 26 25 26 24 27 26 25 27 850 MB ENV VOR 142 118 92 78 62 68 59 38 21 56 29 -13 -31 200 MB DIV -27 -27 -13 -19 -1 -33 9 -1 -1 26 -4 -27 -55 700-850 TADV -11 -11 -15 -11 -4 12 8 0 0 -14 -23 -51 -44 LAND (KM) 1356 1298 1241 1199 1158 1142 1206 1234 1223 1156 1059 954 858 LAT (DEG N) 31.8 31.3 30.8 30.8 30.7 31.1 32.0 32.5 32.7 32.7 32.6 32.9 33.4 LONG(DEG W) 26.7 26.3 25.9 25.5 25.0 24.6 24.8 24.8 24.5 23.7 22.6 21.1 19.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 4 4 3 4 4 2 3 4 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):165/ 10 CX,CY: 3/ -9 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 0. -2. -2. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. -1. -1. -3. -1. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 7. 9. 5. 8. 7. 6. 6. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/22/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/22/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED