* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN EP132012 09/22/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 50 62 72 77 78 78 76 77 71 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 50 62 72 77 78 78 76 77 71 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 35 38 45 52 61 67 68 64 59 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 6 6 8 6 1 3 5 7 11 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -7 -5 -3 -9 -6 -2 2 4 1 3 6 SHEAR DIR 135 115 114 130 158 87 101 88 185 236 227 279 258 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.4 27.9 27.5 27.2 27.1 26.7 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 153 152 150 148 142 138 133 132 129 118 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 71 73 73 72 72 67 65 63 58 60 56 52 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 12 13 13 14 14 15 16 18 19 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 18 25 26 29 25 22 15 23 22 19 26 47 87 200 MB DIV 85 55 56 89 83 76 76 65 47 27 45 61 21 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 -3 -4 -1 1 2 5 8 14 7 LAND (KM) 663 699 729 756 791 847 828 815 836 874 891 915 965 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.2 14.4 15.1 16.0 16.9 17.7 18.2 18.4 18.9 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 107.2 108.0 108.8 109.6 110.3 111.6 113.0 114.5 115.8 116.9 117.5 118.5 119.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 7 4 4 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 54 57 55 54 55 56 41 25 18 14 11 5 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 28. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 8. 9. 12. 13. 17. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 20. 32. 42. 47. 48. 48. 46. 47. 41. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132012 THIRTEEN 09/22/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 3.9%)