* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/22/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 46 48 53 57 60 63 67 68 67 66 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 46 48 53 57 60 63 67 68 67 66 V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 45 46 48 52 56 60 64 66 69 70 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 10 17 19 20 19 17 13 7 2 8 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -6 -4 -5 -5 -4 -2 -3 -1 -7 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 315 261 253 246 240 221 219 226 207 140 85 223 176 SST (C) 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.7 26.9 26.9 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 113 111 110 110 111 114 115 116 117 119 122 122 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 95 92 91 91 93 96 97 98 98 100 104 104 101 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -55.1 -55.5 -54.6 -54.9 -54.6 -54.9 -54.3 -54.8 -54.3 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 26 27 27 26 28 29 30 28 32 36 37 40 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 22 22 22 24 26 26 25 25 27 27 25 25 850 MB ENV VOR 117 95 85 75 77 75 84 82 103 100 87 70 64 200 MB DIV -29 -16 -18 -3 3 -23 7 6 -21 0 12 -14 15 700-850 TADV -11 -15 -6 1 8 8 10 5 2 4 -3 2 5 LAND (KM) 1293 1275 1257 1274 1292 1388 1514 1662 1796 1900 2029 2184 2042 LAT (DEG N) 30.8 30.6 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.6 30.9 31.3 31.6 31.6 31.4 31.7 32.3 LONG(DEG W) 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.5 26.7 27.7 29.0 30.5 31.9 33.1 34.7 36.7 38.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 2 1 2 3 5 6 6 6 6 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):165/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ -8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 12. 15. 18. 22. 24. 22. 21. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/22/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/22/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED