* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN EP132012 09/22/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 45 50 56 65 70 73 72 68 69 65 59 V (KT) LAND 35 39 45 50 56 65 70 73 72 68 69 65 59 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 45 48 55 59 60 58 54 48 43 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 6 5 4 5 3 2 13 16 11 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -7 -4 -4 -5 -5 -5 5 2 3 3 6 5 SHEAR DIR 133 100 87 170 168 221 211 155 234 228 249 210 241 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.1 27.6 27.0 26.5 26.3 25.6 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 153 152 150 145 139 132 126 123 117 108 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.4 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -52.4 -52.9 -51.9 -52.2 -51.3 -51.7 -51.1 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 73 74 74 73 71 68 65 64 63 62 59 63 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 14 14 14 16 16 17 19 19 22 22 21 850 MB ENV VOR 22 23 22 22 19 23 15 25 10 12 8 31 45 200 MB DIV 61 80 84 68 61 74 39 57 52 37 40 43 64 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -4 -4 3 0 4 1 4 5 12 16 LAND (KM) 666 690 714 717 729 779 777 770 775 757 740 708 694 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.5 14.9 15.9 16.5 17.4 18.4 19.2 19.6 20.4 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 107.5 108.1 108.7 109.4 110.0 111.4 113.0 114.5 115.7 116.5 116.8 117.3 118.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 8 8 9 8 7 4 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 56 58 56 54 54 48 35 18 14 13 9 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 22. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 16. 16. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 15. 21. 30. 35. 38. 37. 34. 34. 30. 24. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132012 THIRTEEN 09/22/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 22% is 5.6 times the sample mean( 3.9%)