* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP132012 09/22/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 46 52 58 67 74 75 72 69 62 59 54 V (KT) LAND 35 40 46 52 58 67 74 75 72 69 62 59 54 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 42 45 49 56 60 59 55 48 43 39 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 4 4 1 2 3 5 8 14 10 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -6 -7 -2 -2 8 9 7 0 -2 0 7 SHEAR DIR 81 104 147 169 156 153 261 180 198 225 249 250 264 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.0 27.2 26.7 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.5 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 153 152 151 144 135 129 124 121 118 115 110 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 74 74 74 70 70 67 65 61 58 55 57 51 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 16 16 16 17 17 21 22 21 22 20 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 23 28 25 25 23 23 26 26 23 23 27 34 26 200 MB DIV 84 112 90 71 77 82 31 41 17 42 27 36 46 700-850 TADV -2 0 -2 -3 0 1 10 10 5 3 4 7 0 LAND (KM) 635 631 629 640 667 695 658 675 703 682 658 634 609 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.4 15.9 16.9 17.9 18.6 19.2 19.7 20.1 20.6 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 107.3 107.9 108.5 109.3 110.1 111.9 113.4 114.6 115.5 116.0 116.2 116.5 116.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 9 10 10 8 6 4 2 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 54 56 52 47 45 31 14 9 11 9 4 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 19. 20. 20. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 10. 11. 11. 12. 9. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 23. 32. 39. 40. 37. 34. 27. 24. 19. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132012 MIRIAM 09/22/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 67% is 5.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 54% is 6.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 33% is 5.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 33% is 11.2 times the sample mean( 3.9%)