* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/23/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 49 49 51 54 58 62 62 63 66 62 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 49 49 51 54 58 62 62 63 66 62 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 46 47 48 51 52 54 57 60 64 66 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 25 25 24 22 20 18 7 3 4 7 11 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 -5 -6 -5 -3 -1 -4 0 -2 -4 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 248 236 234 249 258 231 239 272 141 142 253 262 261 SST (C) 26.1 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.6 25.4 25.4 25.7 25.9 25.9 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 111 110 110 110 109 109 108 106 105 109 111 112 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 92 92 91 92 92 92 91 89 88 91 93 94 91 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -55.1 -55.4 -54.9 -54.9 -55.1 -54.8 -55.0 -54.6 -54.9 -54.9 -55.0 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 3 3 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 28 27 26 27 31 39 35 39 44 46 40 42 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 21 24 24 23 23 24 25 27 27 26 28 25 850 MB ENV VOR 75 64 61 65 63 46 36 55 59 65 47 40 30 200 MB DIV -28 -2 3 -26 -35 13 -5 -17 -17 -4 8 13 12 700-850 TADV -4 1 12 10 11 5 0 0 -2 -1 -4 0 3 LAND (KM) 1205 1199 1193 1233 1273 1378 1522 1657 1734 1810 1947 2101 1949 LAT (DEG N) 30.4 30.7 30.9 31.2 31.5 32.1 32.8 33.5 33.7 33.5 33.7 34.5 35.4 LONG(DEG W) 25.7 25.5 25.3 25.6 25.9 26.8 28.1 29.3 30.1 31.1 32.6 34.0 35.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 6. 9. 13. 17. 17. 18. 21. 17. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/23/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 51.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.2/ -0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/23/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED