* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP132012 09/23/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 51 57 62 70 71 70 69 64 61 56 46 V (KT) LAND 40 45 51 57 62 70 71 70 69 64 61 56 46 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 47 51 55 61 61 56 49 44 39 36 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 2 2 5 5 8 9 11 12 8 13 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -5 -4 0 1 7 5 1 -2 2 5 6 SHEAR DIR 86 115 77 138 150 191 203 213 191 245 228 229 236 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.2 26.4 26.0 26.0 25.8 25.2 24.8 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 151 150 145 135 126 121 120 118 112 108 102 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.3 -51.7 -52.3 -51.4 -51.5 -50.3 -51.0 -50.6 -51.2 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 10 9 8 7 7 7 6 4 5 700-500 MB RH 74 70 70 69 64 64 64 60 60 56 52 55 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 18 19 19 21 22 23 24 24 24 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR 24 23 21 20 22 25 31 20 26 31 37 34 30 200 MB DIV 77 78 74 70 67 23 32 17 15 21 19 16 13 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -4 3 4 2 11 4 3 2 3 4 2 LAND (KM) 623 619 630 663 669 622 615 649 665 658 610 596 609 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.2 15.7 16.4 17.0 18.0 18.9 19.5 19.7 20.1 20.9 21.5 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 108.1 108.8 109.5 110.4 111.3 112.9 114.1 115.1 115.7 116.2 116.5 116.9 117.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 10 8 6 4 3 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 54 49 45 43 32 13 8 2 6 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. 9. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 22. 30. 31. 30. 29. 24. 21. 16. 6. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132012 MIRIAM 09/23/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 67% is 5.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 54% is 6.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 35% is 6.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 35% is 12.6 times the sample mean( 3.9%)