* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/23/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 54 54 56 58 63 66 68 72 72 70 V (KT) LAND 50 52 53 54 54 56 58 63 66 68 72 72 70 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 54 55 56 58 59 61 64 68 71 74 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 22 22 23 20 26 15 5 0 7 6 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -7 -5 -3 -3 -3 0 0 -5 -4 -7 -1 SHEAR DIR 233 232 252 253 235 222 211 232 322 234 242 260 272 SST (C) 26.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.9 26.1 26.4 26.5 26.3 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 110 110 110 111 111 112 111 111 112 116 118 116 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 91 92 92 93 93 94 93 92 93 96 99 97 95 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.7 -55.3 -55.3 -55.3 -54.9 -54.9 -54.8 -55.0 -55.1 -55.5 -55.3 -55.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 3 3 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 26 28 28 27 33 35 34 38 44 45 42 42 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 22 22 21 22 22 21 22 24 25 27 26 24 850 MB ENV VOR 65 65 64 61 50 43 37 62 57 59 46 35 25 200 MB DIV -2 -3 -31 -30 -15 -2 -13 7 -12 1 11 4 21 700-850 TADV 6 12 6 6 8 2 1 0 -3 -5 2 1 4 LAND (KM) 1231 1258 1284 1326 1367 1481 1624 1750 1844 1939 2067 2028 1856 LAT (DEG N) 30.6 30.8 31.0 31.2 31.3 31.7 32.4 32.9 32.9 32.7 32.9 34.0 35.1 LONG(DEG W) 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.7 27.1 28.2 29.5 30.7 31.8 33.0 34.4 35.9 37.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 4 5 6 6 5 5 5 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 8. 13. 16. 18. 22. 22. 20. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/23/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 51.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.2/ -0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/23/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED