* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP132012 09/23/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 53 57 65 67 67 65 57 53 46 43 V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 53 57 65 67 67 65 57 53 46 43 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 45 48 51 54 53 50 46 42 40 38 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 3 2 4 2 11 8 13 12 12 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -5 -2 -2 8 0 4 -5 -6 0 5 4 SHEAR DIR 134 213 186 125 161 188 190 160 216 216 247 307 237 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.1 26.4 26.2 26.2 25.9 25.4 24.9 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 149 146 142 134 126 123 122 119 114 109 102 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -51.2 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -51.2 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 71 70 69 68 64 66 63 56 52 45 41 37 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 19 19 18 21 23 24 25 21 21 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 21 18 18 19 18 29 31 37 47 55 63 47 41 200 MB DIV 74 72 66 68 60 60 41 51 36 24 17 36 -6 700-850 TADV -1 -2 3 3 1 8 7 4 3 1 3 -1 0 LAND (KM) 603 614 640 682 650 634 644 688 695 679 655 650 661 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.7 16.3 16.8 17.3 18.1 18.9 19.3 19.5 20.0 20.7 21.3 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 108.5 109.3 110.1 111.0 111.8 113.3 114.5 115.4 115.9 116.4 116.9 117.4 117.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 10 9 7 6 4 3 4 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 44 41 43 36 25 12 3 1 4 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 6. 8. 10. 12. 6. 6. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 17. 25. 27. 27. 25. 17. 13. 6. 3. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132012 MIRIAM 09/23/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 52% is 4.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 37% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 27% is 8.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%)