* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP132012 09/23/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 63 70 77 83 88 89 87 77 71 62 57 46 V (KT) LAND 55 63 70 77 83 88 89 87 77 71 62 57 46 V (KT) LGE mod 55 62 69 75 79 82 77 68 60 54 49 46 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 3 2 1 1 6 12 14 9 12 11 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -4 -4 1 7 9 2 -6 -3 -2 3 1 SHEAR DIR 80 88 37 68 311 130 207 171 223 187 232 215 216 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.1 26.7 26.3 25.9 25.6 25.4 25.0 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 148 145 141 133 128 124 119 116 114 110 106 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -51.3 -51.8 -50.8 -51.3 -50.8 -51.4 -51.3 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 8 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 72 73 71 68 68 70 64 58 53 43 38 36 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 19 19 21 23 25 27 24 24 21 21 17 850 MB ENV VOR 18 15 9 12 18 31 33 48 56 75 69 71 60 200 MB DIV 84 80 91 67 47 67 38 46 38 34 23 24 14 700-850 TADV -2 0 1 0 1 6 5 1 2 1 1 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 629 654 686 684 656 651 668 678 661 640 626 602 584 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.4 18.1 18.6 19.2 19.8 20.3 20.7 21.2 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 109.2 110.0 110.7 111.5 112.3 113.6 114.5 115.2 115.8 116.2 116.5 116.7 117.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 42 43 43 31 24 11 6 0 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 10. 13. 9. 9. 5. 5. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 15. 22. 28. 33. 34. 32. 22. 16. 7. 2. -9. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132012 MIRIAM 09/23/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 77% is 6.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 72% is 9.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 63% is 11.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 63% is 19.1 times the sample mean( 3.9%)