* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/23/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 53 53 55 61 66 67 70 72 71 70 V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 53 53 55 61 66 67 70 72 71 70 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 54 55 56 58 60 63 67 72 75 76 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 23 23 24 24 15 4 4 5 6 10 6 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -4 -8 -4 -2 0 -2 -1 -4 -2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 249 251 236 221 213 212 199 336 218 251 250 284 227 SST (C) 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.8 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 110 111 113 113 113 113 114 116 118 119 121 121 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 92 93 95 95 95 95 95 96 98 100 102 104 101 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.2 -55.3 -55.2 -55.2 -55.0 -54.6 -54.8 -54.7 -55.5 -55.2 -55.4 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 27 27 29 32 32 33 32 35 40 37 43 45 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 22 22 22 23 23 25 26 25 25 27 25 23 850 MB ENV VOR 71 68 57 53 44 50 63 54 59 52 45 37 42 200 MB DIV -28 -15 -10 15 2 -11 12 -2 3 11 11 14 33 700-850 TADV 10 10 9 6 3 2 -1 0 0 0 6 5 4 LAND (KM) 1236 1282 1328 1393 1459 1593 1692 1753 1783 1852 1956 2102 2020 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.0 31.0 31.2 31.4 31.7 31.6 31.4 30.9 30.7 30.9 31.9 33.6 LONG(DEG W) 25.8 26.3 26.8 27.5 28.1 29.5 30.7 31.5 32.1 33.0 34.1 35.3 36.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 6 6 6 4 3 4 4 6 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 11. 16. 17. 20. 22. 21. 20. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/23/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/23/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED