* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP132012 09/23/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 67 74 80 82 86 83 77 69 61 53 48 39 V (KT) LAND 60 67 74 80 82 86 83 77 69 61 53 48 39 V (KT) LGE mod 60 67 73 78 80 77 69 60 53 46 41 37 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 2 2 3 7 7 6 18 11 17 10 13 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -4 0 3 8 7 -5 0 -3 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 84 31 181 240 224 181 160 208 211 213 251 241 255 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.2 26.7 26.4 26.0 25.5 25.1 24.9 24.5 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 145 141 135 128 125 121 115 110 108 104 101 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -51.6 -51.4 -51.1 -51.1 -50.7 -50.8 -51.3 -51.3 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 71 70 69 67 66 66 64 58 55 53 50 47 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 20 20 22 21 26 25 25 24 24 22 21 18 850 MB ENV VOR 10 8 9 14 24 22 28 31 42 50 43 44 34 200 MB DIV 77 73 60 46 45 43 58 53 46 38 30 20 14 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 5 10 7 6 4 8 1 2 -1 LAND (KM) 674 709 700 667 647 647 660 655 600 567 541 496 448 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.4 17.9 18.6 19.0 19.6 20.4 21.0 21.4 22.0 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 110.1 110.9 111.7 112.5 113.2 114.2 114.8 115.3 115.7 116.0 116.1 116.1 116.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 7 5 4 4 4 3 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 44 42 33 25 14 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 4. 4. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 20. 22. 26. 23. 17. 9. 1. -7. -12. -21. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132012 MIRIAM 09/23/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 58% is 4.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 51% is 6.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 44% is 7.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 44% is 13.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)