* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/24/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 44 45 46 50 56 60 63 65 65 63 61 V (KT) LAND 45 44 44 45 46 50 56 60 63 65 65 63 61 V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 44 44 45 48 53 60 66 69 68 65 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 25 27 30 17 11 3 7 14 19 22 35 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -4 -6 -4 -4 -1 -2 0 1 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 236 223 216 218 213 209 272 200 239 211 238 229 236 SST (C) 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 111 112 112 112 113 114 117 118 119 121 122 120 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 93 94 94 95 95 95 97 98 99 102 103 101 98 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.3 -55.2 -55.2 -55.3 -55.2 -55.4 -55.6 -56.1 -55.1 -55.5 -55.6 -56.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 30 32 32 31 33 33 36 32 29 26 26 28 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 20 19 21 21 22 24 22 23 23 22 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 58 47 44 45 49 58 55 72 61 49 37 32 13 200 MB DIV -6 14 -2 0 6 -3 -17 -4 -10 8 -5 16 26 700-850 TADV 6 5 1 3 0 -2 0 -3 -2 1 5 5 6 LAND (KM) 1324 1381 1437 1502 1567 1662 1713 1757 1813 1913 2051 2140 1954 LAT (DEG N) 31.3 31.4 31.5 31.6 31.7 31.5 31.1 30.7 30.4 30.7 31.5 32.7 34.3 LONG(DEG W) 26.6 27.2 27.8 28.5 29.2 30.4 31.2 31.9 32.7 33.7 34.9 35.9 36.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 3 4 5 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. 5. 11. 15. 18. 20. 20. 18. 16. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/24/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/24/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED