* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP132012 09/24/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 99 104 104 101 92 79 69 56 45 36 31 DIS V (KT) LAND 90 99 104 104 101 92 79 69 56 45 36 31 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 99 101 99 94 80 67 56 48 42 38 34 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 1 4 9 11 10 18 18 15 13 8 14 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 5 8 9 8 10 2 -1 -4 -1 4 1 2 SHEAR DIR 198 207 167 179 217 211 218 227 220 234 231 215 226 SST (C) 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.5 26.1 25.7 25.3 24.9 24.5 24.2 24.2 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 139 135 132 127 122 117 113 109 104 102 102 105 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 -51.0 -50.6 -50.7 -50.7 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 9 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 64 63 65 65 61 62 58 53 49 44 40 40 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 26 25 25 26 27 25 25 23 20 18 19 13 850 MB ENV VOR 6 12 17 16 16 22 31 44 56 44 34 16 5 200 MB DIV 72 61 34 -45 -59 42 44 45 41 33 10 44 24 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 4 6 9 5 7 8 1 0 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 679 657 647 641 645 647 616 567 534 489 425 359 306 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.4 18.8 19.4 20.0 20.7 21.4 22.1 22.7 23.4 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 111.7 112.5 113.2 113.8 114.4 115.0 115.3 115.6 116.0 116.1 115.8 115.5 115.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 6 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 25 14 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -9. -16. -22. -28. -34. -38. -42. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 7. 11. 12. 12. 9. 6. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 3. -1. -4. -7. -5. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 14. 14. 11. 2. -11. -21. -34. -45. -54. -59. -75. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132012 MIRIAM 09/24/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 28% is 5.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)