* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/24/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 47 48 53 57 61 64 62 63 62 59 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 47 48 53 57 61 64 62 63 62 59 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 46 46 47 50 54 60 64 64 63 59 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 29 28 19 13 4 7 16 12 22 25 39 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -7 -5 -4 -2 -5 -1 3 -1 0 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 220 217 217 214 207 213 237 246 224 245 231 240 229 SST (C) 25.1 25.0 25.0 24.9 24.9 25.1 25.4 25.8 26.0 25.9 25.3 24.7 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 104 103 103 102 102 103 106 109 110 111 107 102 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 89 88 87 87 87 87 89 92 93 95 92 88 87 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.1 -55.1 -55.3 -55.3 -55.6 -55.7 -55.8 -55.7 -55.5 -55.6 -56.0 -57.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 31 31 32 34 32 31 39 28 26 22 25 28 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 21 21 21 24 23 22 24 22 23 23 21 850 MB ENV VOR 54 53 55 56 63 54 70 66 51 37 30 25 22 200 MB DIV 14 0 -6 1 -14 -9 -1 -18 3 0 22 29 31 700-850 TADV 5 2 2 1 0 -1 -1 -5 0 2 5 7 12 LAND (KM) 1416 1476 1537 1587 1636 1705 1726 1730 1765 1867 2036 2150 2040 LAT (DEG N) 31.6 31.7 31.8 31.8 31.7 31.3 30.6 29.9 29.4 29.7 30.7 32.2 34.0 LONG(DEG W) 27.5 28.2 28.8 29.4 30.0 31.0 31.6 32.0 32.5 33.5 34.9 35.7 35.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 6 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 12. 16. 19. 17. 18. 17. 14. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/24/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/24/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED