* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/24/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 47 48 54 57 61 61 58 59 59 57 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 47 48 54 57 61 61 58 59 59 57 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 45 46 47 50 56 61 63 63 61 59 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 28 21 14 6 5 8 17 21 21 29 33 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -6 -5 -1 -3 -3 -2 0 0 0 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 220 217 211 203 199 243 239 243 232 255 242 236 234 SST (C) 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.1 25.4 25.6 25.8 25.9 25.9 25.7 25.1 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 103 103 103 103 103 105 107 108 110 111 109 104 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 89 88 87 87 87 88 89 90 92 94 92 89 86 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.1 -55.2 -55.3 -55.0 -55.3 -55.5 -55.7 -55.4 -55.7 -55.3 -56.0 -56.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 4 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 29 32 33 32 31 34 30 26 22 23 29 33 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 21 20 20 22 23 22 22 21 19 20 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 47 52 51 60 56 54 63 49 34 29 18 23 15 200 MB DIV 0 -3 -10 -5 -10 -8 -32 -3 2 2 33 11 51 700-850 TADV 4 3 2 0 -1 -1 -4 -5 0 4 3 5 7 LAND (KM) 1489 1546 1602 1636 1670 1696 1700 1708 1765 1858 1991 2051 2098 LAT (DEG N) 31.7 31.7 31.7 31.5 31.3 30.7 30.2 29.8 29.6 29.7 30.1 31.1 32.6 LONG(DEG W) 28.3 29.0 29.6 30.1 30.6 31.2 31.5 31.8 32.4 33.4 34.7 35.1 34.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 3 5 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 12. 16. 16. 13. 14. 14. 12. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/24/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/24/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED