* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP132012 09/24/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 107 105 100 95 81 70 56 48 37 28 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 105 107 105 100 95 81 70 56 48 37 28 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 105 107 104 98 91 77 65 57 51 48 44 39 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 10 11 15 20 19 17 4 10 16 30 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 7 14 16 8 -1 -7 -1 5 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 202 240 219 230 241 251 212 216 224 194 209 224 234 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.1 25.7 25.0 24.4 24.0 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 139 136 133 129 127 121 117 110 105 102 104 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -51.1 -51.5 -51.1 -51.6 -51.3 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 63 63 59 61 58 54 50 43 37 33 34 34 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 22 24 24 26 25 26 22 20 16 16 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 7 8 7 15 24 38 59 81 77 75 55 26 28 200 MB DIV 77 -10 -18 -13 25 36 34 42 2 11 27 34 23 700-850 TADV 2 4 3 6 12 6 3 7 0 -2 -2 1 1 LAND (KM) 657 667 690 707 714 700 699 656 632 584 522 420 273 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.2 18.6 19.0 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.6 21.1 21.8 22.7 24.1 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 113.2 114.0 114.8 115.4 115.9 116.3 116.7 116.8 117.0 117.0 116.9 116.7 116.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 6 4 3 2 3 3 4 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 7 2 0 0 2 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -14. -21. -29. -36. -42. -48. -53. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 1. 0. 1. -4. -6. -11. -12. -16. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 0. -5. -10. -24. -35. -49. -57. -68. -77. -89. -98. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132012 MIRIAM 09/24/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)