* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/25/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 41 43 47 51 55 56 53 55 53 57 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 41 43 47 51 55 56 53 55 53 57 V (KT) LGE mod 40 39 39 40 41 46 52 57 59 58 56 53 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 19 13 10 7 7 16 16 19 18 26 33 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -5 -5 -1 -3 -2 -3 2 7 5 3 7 SHEAR DIR 217 216 215 230 234 245 250 249 255 251 244 224 226 SST (C) 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.9 25.0 25.4 25.8 26.0 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.6 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 101 101 100 101 102 106 109 111 112 111 110 108 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 86 86 85 85 86 89 92 93 94 92 92 92 90 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.2 -55.5 -55.2 -55.4 -55.3 -55.1 -55.6 -55.3 -55.1 -55.2 -55.6 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 33 35 35 34 34 38 30 24 25 27 34 41 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 21 21 23 24 22 22 22 22 19 21 20 25 850 MB ENV VOR 44 53 58 55 53 51 40 25 21 21 13 20 47 200 MB DIV 0 2 -8 -11 -8 -10 -28 -4 -1 23 -8 35 61 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 -2 -4 -2 -6 0 7 9 6 7 5 LAND (KM) 1546 1589 1632 1647 1662 1635 1604 1634 1707 1756 1796 1890 2018 LAT (DEG N) 32.2 32.1 32.0 31.8 31.5 30.7 29.8 29.3 29.1 29.2 29.7 30.2 30.7 LONG(DEG W) 28.7 29.3 29.8 30.1 30.4 30.5 30.6 31.2 32.0 32.5 32.7 33.5 34.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -2. -4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 16. 13. 15. 13. 17. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/25/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/25/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED