* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP132012 09/25/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 84 80 76 72 63 50 38 29 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 84 80 76 72 63 50 38 29 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 83 77 71 65 54 44 37 32 28 25 22 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 17 19 21 24 26 26 16 23 23 34 42 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 8 7 6 1 2 -4 0 2 0 5 -2 5 SHEAR DIR 223 222 223 228 216 202 220 224 236 230 227 240 240 SST (C) 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.3 25.6 25.0 24.7 24.7 25.1 25.6 25.6 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 134 132 128 124 117 111 107 107 112 117 116 114 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.2 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -51.6 -51.4 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 61 66 64 62 60 55 50 47 46 44 43 42 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 22 23 24 26 25 23 20 18 15 12 9 5 850 MB ENV VOR 5 9 22 26 24 41 60 48 35 37 15 4 1 200 MB DIV 27 35 48 47 48 68 38 21 25 40 29 20 10 700-850 TADV 6 7 9 6 4 8 10 5 5 2 3 2 3 LAND (KM) 648 637 629 610 586 495 406 349 319 264 150 60 9 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.9 19.2 19.7 20.1 21.1 22.2 23.1 23.9 24.8 25.8 26.6 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 114.1 114.4 114.6 114.8 114.9 115.0 115.1 115.2 115.3 115.1 114.7 114.4 114.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 4 5 5 5 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -5. -11. -18. -26. -32. -36. -39. -41. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -13. -14. -17. -22. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -16. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -14. -18. -27. -40. -52. -61. -72. -84. -94.-102. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132012 MIRIAM 09/25/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)