* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/25/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 45 46 52 57 58 61 60 60 57 58 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 45 46 52 57 58 61 60 60 57 58 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 44 47 53 59 61 61 59 56 53 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 6 8 8 4 17 16 17 19 28 32 25 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -4 -2 -2 -3 2 -1 2 2 0 12 5 SHEAR DIR 226 227 251 283 264 238 241 255 232 239 232 218 201 SST (C) 24.9 25.0 25.1 25.3 25.5 26.0 26.3 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.7 25.1 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 102 102 103 105 107 112 114 114 113 110 108 104 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 86 86 87 89 91 95 96 96 95 92 91 90 87 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.3 -55.6 -55.7 -55.8 -55.8 -55.8 -55.4 -55.4 -55.4 -55.8 -55.5 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 4 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 32 32 33 35 36 25 22 22 23 29 37 41 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 21 21 21 19 21 22 19 21 21 21 20 22 850 MB ENV VOR 56 48 50 43 44 41 28 22 17 17 16 21 36 200 MB DIV -15 -17 -14 -9 -14 -37 -8 6 15 -7 33 19 71 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -2 -2 -2 -5 0 1 8 9 10 8 16 LAND (KM) 1637 1649 1662 1650 1639 1625 1675 1739 1814 1889 1947 2017 2123 LAT (DEG N) 31.9 31.6 31.3 30.9 30.4 29.3 28.6 28.6 29.1 29.6 30.1 31.1 32.6 LONG(DEG W) 29.9 30.2 30.5 30.6 30.7 31.1 31.9 32.6 33.2 33.8 34.2 34.7 35.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 3 4 3 4 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 14. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. -2. 0. 0. 0. -2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 12. 17. 18. 21. 20. 20. 17. 18. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/25/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/25/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED