* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP132012 09/25/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 80 76 71 68 59 44 36 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 80 76 71 68 59 44 36 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 79 73 67 61 50 42 36 31 28 25 22 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 17 19 26 20 28 19 13 21 26 37 45 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 11 12 2 1 -2 -6 -1 -1 0 -3 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 244 223 219 214 210 207 226 209 224 213 222 221 243 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.2 25.5 25.0 24.7 24.9 25.3 25.8 25.9 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 131 127 123 116 111 107 109 113 119 119 118 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -51.0 -50.9 -51.1 -50.5 -51.1 -51.3 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 5 4 6 4 700-500 MB RH 66 66 65 62 59 55 52 49 48 46 46 43 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 25 26 25 25 25 20 19 15 14 11 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 10 23 24 25 23 43 54 44 27 24 4 0 4 200 MB DIV 40 56 64 42 50 48 23 20 47 53 52 -2 -2 700-850 TADV 7 13 10 6 8 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 4 LAND (KM) 654 640 630 607 576 491 406 341 293 244 147 72 -11 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.0 19.3 19.8 20.2 21.2 22.2 23.1 24.1 24.9 25.7 26.4 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 114.3 114.5 114.7 114.8 114.9 115.1 115.1 115.1 115.1 114.9 114.5 114.3 114.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -16. -22. -28. -32. -34. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -10. -11. -13. -18. -23. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -4. -5. -11. -11. -16. -19. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -14. -17. -26. -41. -49. -62. -71. -84. -92. -98. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132012 MIRIAM 09/25/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)