* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP132012 09/25/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 70 65 60 57 47 39 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 70 65 60 57 47 39 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 69 64 59 53 44 38 33 30 27 24 22 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 16 25 24 17 19 14 19 23 29 32 40 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 16 2 2 9 -3 0 1 0 3 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 217 215 240 244 221 236 242 241 241 233 240 248 247 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.4 26.1 25.3 24.8 24.6 24.7 24.9 24.9 24.8 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 130 125 122 114 108 106 107 109 109 108 104 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.1 -51.2 -51.5 -51.1 -51.2 -51.7 -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 63 62 60 63 58 55 51 54 54 49 49 41 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 26 25 24 26 22 21 18 15 13 10 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 15 20 24 27 34 54 48 40 43 38 32 31 23 200 MB DIV 51 68 35 16 49 28 8 24 39 28 27 1 8 700-850 TADV 11 11 13 8 13 10 3 5 2 2 0 2 5 LAND (KM) 675 661 649 613 573 498 430 374 332 281 223 155 93 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.2 19.5 20.0 20.5 21.5 22.5 23.3 24.1 24.8 25.5 26.2 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 114.8 115.0 115.1 115.3 115.4 115.6 115.7 115.6 115.5 115.4 115.5 115.4 115.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -11. -17. -21. -24. -27. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -9. -12. -16. -20. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 1. -3. -5. -10. -14. -16. -21. -23. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -15. -18. -28. -36. -47. -56. -65. -75. -83. -88. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132012 MIRIAM 09/25/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)