* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/26/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 44 46 50 54 56 58 54 54 56 56 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 44 46 50 54 56 58 54 54 56 56 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 43 45 47 53 58 59 58 55 52 50 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 5 6 15 15 22 23 22 28 31 26 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -1 -1 -4 -1 -1 0 6 1 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 249 281 330 268 262 262 255 254 237 239 218 209 210 SST (C) 25.1 25.3 25.5 25.7 25.9 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.0 25.5 24.9 24.6 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 103 105 107 108 110 113 114 113 111 108 103 100 99 ADJ. POT. INT. 87 89 90 92 94 96 96 96 95 92 88 86 85 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.9 -56.0 -56.2 -56.4 -56.7 -56.0 -56.1 -55.3 -55.8 -56.0 -55.5 -55.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 33 34 36 29 26 21 22 23 28 34 34 38 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 19 18 18 17 18 18 20 18 19 21 22 850 MB ENV VOR 42 39 42 40 34 16 7 3 5 0 4 10 10 200 MB DIV -9 2 -15 -39 -35 -23 -12 2 24 6 40 30 44 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -4 -8 -1 -2 1 4 9 5 10 10 LAND (KM) 1649 1638 1626 1611 1595 1631 1703 1774 1854 1956 2086 2158 2052 LAT (DEG N) 31.4 31.0 30.5 30.1 29.6 28.8 28.6 28.8 29.4 30.3 31.5 32.7 34.0 LONG(DEG W) 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.6 30.6 31.3 32.2 32.9 33.5 34.2 35.3 35.6 35.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 5 6 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):210/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 15. 17. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. -2. -2. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 14. 16. 18. 14. 14. 16. 16. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/26/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/26/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED